Key Findings
- HDB resale prices rose 3.2% year-on-year in Q1 2026, with the composite index at 181.4
- 4-room flats in mature estates accounted for 38% of all transactions — the highest share in three years
- Cash-Over-Valuation (COV) returned to positive territory across all flat types, averaging $18,000
- Bishan, Queenstown, and Tampines outperformed the market, posting gains of 4.8%, 4.1%, and 3.9% respectively
- First-time buyers now make up 61% of resale transactions, up from 54% a year ago
Market Overview
The HDB resale market entered 2026 on firm footing, with transaction volumes rising 8% quarter-on-quarter to 7,312 units. The sustained demand reflects a structural mismatch between supply and the preferences of a growing cohort of upgraders and young couples who want immediate occupancy rather than the three-to-five-year wait for a Build-To-Order (BTO) flat.
HDB's flash estimate for the Q1 Resale Price Index stood at 181.4, up from 175.8 in Q1 2025. That 3.2% annual gain is notable because it comes on the back of a year in which cooling measures — including higher Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty for second-property buyers — were expected to dampen sentiment. Instead, the resale segment proved resilient, absorbing the added transaction costs without a meaningful price correction.
Top Performing Estates
Bishan
Bishan continued its multi-year run as one of Singapore's most coveted mature estates. Proximity to Bishan-Ang Mo Kio Park, excellent schools (Catholic High, Raffles Institution nearby), and the interchange between the Circle and North-South Lines all underpin demand. Five-room flats in the estate transacted at a median of $985,000 in Q1, with several units breaking the $1.1 million mark. Expect prices here to hold firm as supply remains tight — only 12 resale transactions were recorded in the estate during the quarter.
Tampines
Tampines' appeal is its relative affordability compared to central estates combined with strong transport links and the upcoming Tampines North MRT station on the Cross Island Line. The 4-room resale median in Tampines hit $638,000 in Q1, a 3.9% increase year-on-year. The estate also benefited from strong HDB Plus restrictions in recent BTO launches, which prevent those flat buyers from selling into the resale market for a longer window — a dynamic that keeps supply constrained.
Queenstown
Queenstown remains the perennial favourite for buyers who prize central living at sub-Orchard prices. A 3-room flat at Commonwealth Avenue traded at $820,000 in Q1 — a record for that flat type in the estate. The redevelopment pipeline along the Ayer Rajah corridor continues to draw professionals and younger couples who want to be close to the one-north tech and biomedical cluster.
4-Room Flat Trends
4-room flats continued to dominate resale activity, accounting for 38% of all Q1 transactions. The island-wide median for a 4-room resale flat reached $612,000 in Q1 2026, up from $589,000 a year ago. Notable is the widening gap between mature and non-mature estates: 4-room flats in mature estates like Bishan, Queenstown, and Toa Payoh transact at a 30–40% premium over comparable units in non-mature estates like Woodlands and Jurong West.
The persistent premium suggests buyers attach significant value to established amenities, shorter commutes, and school proximity — factors that are difficult to replicate quickly in newer towns.
Cash-Over-Valuation (COV) Returns
After two consecutive quarters of near-zero or negative COV in late 2024, Q1 2026 saw a meaningful reversal. The average COV across all flat types was approximately $18,000, with 4-room flats in central and mature estates commanding COVs of $25,000–$40,000. This signals that HDB valuations are lagging actual market prices — a common occurrence during periods of strong demand — and means buyers are increasingly deploying cash savings above and beyond their CPF.
Buyer Profile Shifts
First-time buyers now make up the majority of resale transactions at 61%, a sharp increase from 54% twelve months ago. This shift reflects two forces: (1) a growing pool of young couples who missed out on BTO ballots and are turning to the resale market as a reliable alternative, and (2) tightened eligibility rules for singles purchasing BTO flats in prime and plus locations, which has redirected a portion of solo buyers into the resale segment.
The proportion of buyers aged 26–35 purchasing resale flats reached 33% in Q1 — the highest on record. This demographic is particularly active in estates with strong rental yields and proximity to employment clusters.
Q2 2026 Outlook
The outlook for Q2 is cautiously positive. HDB has committed to launching around 19,600 BTO units in 2026, which should gradually alleviate demand pressures over the medium term. However, the full effect of new supply will not be felt in the resale market for several years given the minimum occupation period.
Interest rates remain a key variable. If the US Federal Reserve proceeds with the two rate cuts the market is pricing in for mid-2026, mortgage rates in Singapore are likely to edge down from the current 3.2–3.5% range, potentially stimulating further resale activity.
What This Means for Buyers
If you are considering a resale purchase, act on well-priced units in popular estates rather than waiting for a price correction that may not materialise in the near term. Get your HDB Flat Eligibility (HFE) letter in order and ensure your CPF and cash buffers can accommodate a COV of $15,000–$30,000 in mature estates.
What This Means for Sellers
Conditions are as favourable as they have been in several years. Buyers are active, financing is available, and appetite for well-maintained flats with good attributes is strong. If you are upgrading to a private property, be aware that the extended occupation period for newer BTO flats in plus and prime categories may affect the eventual resale pool for those properties.
